Edwin Keeble Designed Home in Hillwood, Cheap!

edwin keeble nashville architect

As many readers know, I like to point out homes that have intrinsic value and intrigue from time to time (not to mention you have the opportunity to purchase a 4,154 square foot home for under $130 per foot). An example of his early work, this 1947 Edwin Keeble designed home in the Hillwood area of Nashville is one of the first homes designed after Keeble struck out on his own. It is during this period that Keeble famously designed Nashville’s first modern skyscraper, the L&C Tower. The home does need some care, but with a new high-tech commercial roof, Trane air conditioning system and spectacular kitchen, I cannot imagine not jumping all over the chance to live in such a historically significant home.

Edwin A. Keeble, Nashville Architectural Icon

edwin keeble nashville architectEdwin Keeble was born into a distinguished Tennessee family. His father was an attorney and later the dean of the law school at Vanderbilt University. His paternal grandfather was a State Representative from Tennessee during the second Congress held in Richmond, Virginia, 1864-1865. Keeble attended Montgomery Bell Academy and enrolled in Vanderbilt University at the age of sixteen. After receiving his engineering degree from Vanderbilt in 1924, he studied architecture at University of Pennsylvania followed by France and finally Italy. He received his architectural degree from the University of Pennsylvania in 1928, at the age of twenty-three.

Keeble began practicing architecture in Nashville, and in 1929 his association with architect and engineer Francis B. Warfield established the firm of Warfield and Keeble, which existed until 1944. After a two-year term of service as a lieutenant in the United States Navy, Keeble established a private architectural practice in Nashville and designed many notable structures, including the Life & Casualty Tower, Woodmont Christian Church and Vine Street Christian Church.

Nashville Real Estate Data October 2010

nashville housing market stats 2010

nashville home prices rise 2010There were 1,495 home closings in Nashville reported for the month of October 2010, according to figures provided by GNAR. This figure is down 30.3% from the 2,145 closings reported for the same period in 2009. Year-to-date closings through October 2010 are 17,424, representing a 1% decrease from the 17,598 closings reported through October 2009.

The median residential price for a single-family home during October was $173,525, and for a condo it was $152,950. This compares with last year’s median single family home and condo prices of $160,000 and $144,000, respectively. Total inventory at the end of October was 22,826, compared to 23,398 in October 2009, a moderate, yet encouraging 2.5% decrease.

There were 1,439 sales pending at the end of the October 2010, compared with 2,106 pending sales at this time last year. The average number of days on the market for a single-family home was 94 days, 9 days longer than October 2009.

Micro-analyzing Monthly Real Estate Data

The practice of micro-analysis can produce somewhat harmful buying and selling decisions. I have always maintained that a larger data focus is necessary in order to more fully understand how to better prepare yourself for a real estate transaction. It is with this principle in mind that I fear a false positive for rising home prices in Nashville (although, I did predict an increase in Nashville home prices in May).

On the graph below, the red trend line represents the total housing inventory. The green line is the average median home price and the blue line is the total number of home closings in Nashville. One glance at the trend lines shows a rather drastic upward trend in pricing based upon a rather small decline in inventory coupled with a small increase in the total number of closings. This is a pricing trend that seems wholly unsustainable based upon the past 6 years of data for the Nashville housing market.

nashville housing market stats 2010

Unsustainable Nashville Real Estate Trend

Clearly, there are an infinite number of additional market forces that affect the direction of the Nashville housing market, but indulge me in this oversimplified analysis for a few more minutes. Based upon the trends, it seems as if real estate prices reacted extremely favorably once the total housing inventory began to only plateau or stabilize. Via a miniature quarterly increase in closings and certainly a decrease in new housing starts, the pricing component of the Nashville market is completely out of whack. What could explain this increase? Did the Federal Housing Stimuli artificially hold prices lower beginning in Q3 2009 and ending in Q2 2010? Are Nashvillians so susceptible to positive news that we’ll run right out and pay more for real estate? Only time will tell.

Nashville Housing Market Prediction

It is my opinion that median home prices will ultimately fall into the $164,000 neighborhood by Q1 2011 as total inventory continues a modest decrease. The gains from increased closings in 2011 will be negated by the return of shadow inventory to the market as renters cycle off leases. This leads 2011 to become a rather blah year in terms of sustained recovery. I do not believe 2011 will become the year we look back upon and say, “that was the bottom of the market”. Rather, I believe we’ll look back and say, “2009-2011 was the bottom of the Nashville real estate market”.

$5 Million Tyne Boulevard Mansion Auction

nashville mansion tyne boulevard

nashville mansion tyne boulevardJust when the average multi-millionaire allowed herself to slip into a melancholy real estate state of mind, RealtyTrust steps in and lifts the mood. The 16,090 square foot Oak Hill masterpiece that high-end builder Kelvin Pennington has been pouring over for several years hits the auction blocks on Friday September the 10th, 2010 at 6:30pm.

Located at 943 Tyne Boulevard, resting between countless estate homes and one of the highest concentrations of wealth in Nashville, this English style manor sits on 3.9 acres. Completed a year ago and originally listed for $4.9 million, this is an excellent opportunity to purchase a legacy property below cost.

Should you choose to work with me during the auction, the seller is responsible for compensation, not the winning bidder. Contact me privately to learn more about my ability to aid you during this auction event.

943 Tyne Boulevard Mansion Features

  • 16,090 sq. ft. (6) bedroom, (6.5) bath – Main Level Master suite with private study & morning kitchen
  • Exquisite, well appointed master bath with soaring 22’ ceiling, marble floors and countertops, custom millwork, Jacuzzi tub, large tiled shower, multiple showerheads and massive walk-in closets
  • All Guest rooms feature private bathrooms
  • Mahogany paneled elevator servicing all four floors
  • Two (2) Gourmet Kitchens featuring Wolf * Asko * Sub-Zero appliances
  • Garage parking for four (4) vehicles plus additional storage
  • Soaring 12 and 22 foot interior ceilings, and 8 foot doors enhance the open interior
  • Huge custom windows flood the home with natural light
  • Several terraces extend the outdoors inside the home
  • Home theatre featuring an 11 foot screen and hand painted murals of movie classics
  • Formal Billiard Room with Game/Family area and Full Kitchen
  • Custom Millwork * Wide-Plank Hardwood and solid-surface countertops throughout
  • Over 2,000 sq. ft of open entertaining space on fourth level that can accommodate approx. 100 seated guests with room left over for the band and catering staff

Buying a Mansion at Auction in Nashville

Individuals who possess the wherewithal to purchase said piece of real estate are without doubt, intelligent and savvy. However, it never hurts to obtain a second opinion from a person who intimately understands not only the Nashville real estate market, but also the real estate auction business. As founding partner in a local auction company, allow my experience to serve to your advantage. I will provide you with a comprehensive bid analysis (see West End condo auction prep sheet) as well as with insight into Pinnacle Bank’s motivations, reservations and modus operandi for recent auctions.

3.9 Acre Parcel                             Aerial of Oak Hill                             Bid Prep Sheet

943 tyne blvd nashville tn          943 tyne blvd aerial          west end auction prep sheet

Important Auction Dates and Notes

  • Auction takes place onsite promptly on Friday September 10th, 2010 at 6:30pm CDT
  • Property previews are Tuesday September 7th, 2010 from 10am through 4pm CDT and again on Friday September 10th, 2010 from 12:00pm through 6:30pm CDT
  • This real estate auction is being offered with a reserve. This is not an absolute auction.
  • You must register in order to participate in this auction. You may register on the day of the auction.
    This auction is selling with a 5% buyer’s premium.
  • The winning bidder is expected to immediately pay 10% of the winning bid as deposit for the purchase
  • The winning bidder must close within 30 days of Friday September 10th, 2010
  • Should you choose to work with me during the auction, the seller is responsible for compensation, not the winning bidder

Tyne Boulevard Auction Media and Pictures

See the auction listing on the RealtyTrust Auction website
View the virtual tour on the RealtyTrust Auction website
Private contact form for questions concerning this auction

Brentwood Housing Inventory – August 2010

brentwood home kitchen

brentwood home kitchenWhile having 532 single family homes for sale in Brentwood may seem like a rather large unsold inventory, that number only represents 6.7% of the total homes in Brentwood. According to the 2008 estimated census, there are 7,934 single family homes in Brentwood. However, looking at the statistics below, the housing segment that does appear to be struggling in Brentwood is the over $1 million mansion market.

  Homes under $500,000 Homes $500,000 – $1 mil Homes $1 million +
Total For Sale 162 282 88
# Distressed 10 15 5
Average List Price $408,159 $685,286 $1,604,408
Median List Price $419,900 $659,950 $1,399,900
Days on Market 73 100 151

 

Contract and Closing Activity

It appears as if both Brentwood housing segments under $1 million are experiencing better than expected activity, but the over $1 million properties are sitting on the market longer than usual and selling for much less than original asking price.

  Homes under $500,000 Homes $500,000 – $1 mil Homes $1 million +
Have Offers 20 18 4
Currently Pending 9 35 4
Sold last 3 Months 94 113 12
Avg Sold Price $383,703 $642,229 $1,143,164
% Less Than List 5.99% 6.28% 28.74%

 

Brentwood Housing Market Conclusions

With only 5.17 months of inventory currently on the market, the under $500,000 housing market is the healthiest in Brentwood, TN. The $500,000 – $1 million housing segment follows with 7.48 months of inventory on the market. Finally, the over $1 million housing market has quite a bit of absorbing to do with almost 2 years worth of inventory currently for sale.

Also very troubling for multi-million dollar mansions is the fact that sellers are having to take rather large discounts in order to sell their houses. According to the statistics, the average price for homes listed in this market segment is $1,604,408 while the average sale is $1,1143,164. This 28.74% differential is telling us that either only the lower priced homes in this segment are selling or that sellers are having to reduce their expectations significantly.

A little worrisome for both mansions and more reasonably priced homes in Brentwood is that 5.63% of all home owners are distressed; meaning, listed as a foreclosure or short sale in the MLS. This number is up almost 2 percentage points since the beginning of 2010.

Overall, the news is simply not that bad. Yes, homes are taking longer to sell than in years past and yes, they are selling for less. But, the Brentwood housing market remains one of the most active in Middle Tennessee as well as one of the most stable. Based upon this evidence, I would expect Brentwood to be within 22 months of returning to a completely unencumbered market.

An experienced agent can become the difference between successfully selling your home in 2010 or having to wait until 2013. Do not hestiate to contact me regarding any price range home in Brentwood.

Multi-Million Dollar Short Sale in Brentwood

This is clearly a phrase we have not become all that accustomed with in Brentwood, Tennessee. Nonetheless, it is a phrase that we must utter occasionally when describing brand new homes which have had difficulty in selling to a new owner. Even impeccably constructed, designed and located mansions like this one in the Annandale subdivision.

I am not advocating that this particular Brentwood mansion is the best buy on the market. I am simply pointing out that even homes in awarding winning Annandale are not immune to the new selectiveness brought by a new type of purchaser, the empowered buyer.

Note – this home is a short sale and not a foreclosure. This means that the original construction lender will be a party to the negotiations.

Real Estate Tax Credit Causes Nashville Homes Sales to Soar

happy and ignorant about home salesMost real estate professionals would agree that the extended first-time home buyer credit has led to an increased level of purchase activity in Nashville. However, most tend to also believe that this activity has led us to a point when you can call the Nashville real estate market ‘recovered’. I can see why you may feel that way considering the combined optimism of a better than last Spring selling season and the fading memory of bank collapses and insurance company overextension. In fact, I have even seen many sellers stiffen their backs when lower than asking price offers have been presented in hopes that the 2010 market will net a higher offer a few months down the road.

Don’t be Foolish!

History is a great professor and it’s time to go back to class. Yes, March 2010 closing are 20.6% higher than those of 2009, but they are also still 16.3% lower than in 2008, a recessionary year, which did not see any government incentive induced real estate sales. Yes, it is also true that we have seen 6 straight months of year over year gains in closings, but the first-time buyer credit concludes at the end of April with little indication that the program will be extended. At one point during this run, year over of year sales were trending 59% above the previous year’s, it is no coincidence that this spike directly coincided with the end of the government’s initial first-time buyer credit program. I suspect that we’ll see this same phenomena repeated this Spring.

Click image to Enlarge

March 2010 Nashville real estate closings

April 2010 Closed Homes Prediction for Nashville

I am going to go out on a limb and make a prediction that I am going to guarantee. The number of closings in April 2010 will exceed those of 2008. In March of 2010 there were 1,757 closings, April of 2008 recorded 1,994. I am predicting that the Nashville market will experience at minimum another 13.5% month over month increase in the number of closings or 237 more closings. This increase in sales is so closely tied to the first-time buyer credit that I will also make another bold prediction. Should the government not extend the credit for a third time or reestablish a mortgage backed securities buying program, by August 2010, closings will back below 10 year lows. The dotted green line represents that probability based upon an extrapolation of combined inventory predictions and fixed 30 year mortgage rates.

Click image to Enlarge

2010 closed sales prediction 

Take-Away Points for Buyers and Sellers

  • If you are a seller who has received a reasonable offer for your home or condo, negotiate judiciously then take the money and run.
  • If you are a buyer who is in the market for a steal, wait. Unless your buying power is dependent upon the today’s mortgage rate, wait.
  • If you are a cash buyer for an individual home or condo, your day has not yet come. Wait until the end of Summer and you are guaranteed to rip a seller’s heart out by their wallet.
  • If you are a casual seller who is only trying to sell your property in order to be able to take advantage of a distressed seller, stock up on patience. However, the best homes do sell, so make your property the best it can be.

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