The Terrazzo Auction Results

The results of the Terrazzo auction are in and it appears that my predictions are right on target. 25 condos sold at an average price of $233.01 per foot with a couple of sales reaching over the $250/ft mark. The average total price of $283,600 represents 62.48% of the original asking prices at Terrazzo.

Approximately 220 people attended the auction at the Renaissance Hotel in downtown Nashville, but I was never able to count more than 47 registered buyers. The auctioneers, Accelerated Marketing Partners, did add 4 new condos to the auction that were not listed prior to auction day.

21 condos sold during the actual auction and 4 sold after the bidding was stopped (marked as AA in the table below). The live auction portion lasted one hour and six minutes and the after auction sale only took 14 minutes. The entire auction and sale only lasted one hour and twenty minutes. In other words: During the 80 minute auction, $92,162.50 was spent per minute. Without further delay here are the complete auction results from today’s Terrazzo condo auction:

Terrazzo Auction Results

Initial reactions to the Terrazzo Auction

It is a good sign for the Nashville condo market that 25 buyers are available in the Nashville market who can dole out $7,373,000 in one afternoon. I would also agree that $233/ft is the correct market price for 25 condos sold in this manner. I do not believe that it is an overall commentary on the true market price. If you were to believe that $233/ft is the true current market rate, you would also have to believe that 9,125 condos are selling in a year (25 condos x 365 days). That being said, the true market rate for these type of condos has fallen as a result of today’s auction at the Terrazzo. I will discuss by how much in the next series of articles over the next 5 days.

The market has just told developers with unsold inventory in the Gulch that their condos are not worth $300/ft in the current 2009-10 market. Perhaps the memory of the auction will fade in buyers’ minds after a few months, but if the Terrazzo re-prices all of their remaining condos much lower, it could have a longer lasting effect.

See all condos for sale in The Terrazzo

  • Bill

    Thanks Grant, great recap What do the lines highlighted in blue represent?

  • GrantHammond

    Bill, I apologize. In my haste to get these results live, I failed to explain that the blue highlighted lines are the 3 condos that the auctioneers put into the auction that were not advertised prior to auction day.

  • aynrand2009

    In response to a well-advertised, aggressive, and superior marketing campaign, a roomful of desperate buyers was herded into a ballroom where 21 units (of 34 offered) sold before the developer terminated the auction. (Four additional units sold after the auction, or maybe six since the NewsChannel Five reports 27 sold.) Nine (or seven) units went unsold. The only three-bedroom unit sold for less than $200 PSF. Call me crazy, but I can't believe the banks or developers are happy with these results, especially when one considers the expenses of the auction. It'll be interesting to see Terrazzo's pricing of the unsold and future units, as well as the reaction of Velocity and Icon's developers. I believe the true bargains are still to come.

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  • Brian

    Is there any consideration (when pricing comps and comparing apples to apples) to location/view of the units in a building? Weren't the majority of the units on the auction block, as well as the amenity deck, overlooking I-40? Other buildings in the downtown area have incredible views w/o the disturbance of noise/pollution from the interstate.

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  • Falcon2

    I completely agree. The media coverage of this well executed attempt to move these units will pressure developers to substantially lower prices. Even if developers and foolish buyers try and ignore this, appraisers won't be able to.

    And considering the Terrazzo's quality I think this easily forces the likes of Icon, Encore and Rhythm below $200 per foot if they want to sell units in 2010. And I'll be surprised if John Coleman Hayes follows through on his auction. If he forges ahead I think it will be a train wreck. Without a well-advertised reserve at $150/sf or less I don't think anyone shows anyway.

  • Falcon2

    Yes, some units in other buildings downtown offer better views (for now) but most of Terrazzo's views are decent enough and, more importantly, there isn't a single building in Nashville as well built or offering units as highly finished as Terrazzo. I haven't seen a contemporary condo in any city with a nicer cabinet, flooring, countertop and appliance package, certainly not for less than $400-500/sf. They obviously went way overboard but, in my opinion, choosy buyers will recognize this and snap the remaining Terrazzo units up quickly if the developer relinquishes the remaining inventory at something close to the auction prices.

  • GrantHammond

    Falcon2 has hit on the real question here, what are appraisers going to do with this new information and how will they apply to buildings like the Icon and Rhythm? I have spoken with a few appraisers who feel like each building has its own 'economy' and I have spoken to yet others who feel like all of the high-rises are similar enough to have to consider all prices in all buildings. If the second school of thought prevails, the real loser could be the Adelicia as it currently sells for the highest price per foot in the city. Granted, the Adelicia is sold out, but there will be several future buyers who need to have bank financing to be able to complete a purchase.

  • GrantHammond

    Brian, I agree that Nashville's high-rise living community is so new that view plays an overly large part of a buyer's consideration of what they want to/should pay for a condo. If there were 30 high-rise condos to choose from, I believe that view begins to play a lesser role and other considerations like finishes and appliances are given more weight. However, until we have all of those choices items like view and location will be two of the most considered factors in price.

  • Falcon2

    I think the concept of a “seperate economy” probably makes sense for buildings that are soldout and don't have much available inventory. Appraisers don't have to stick their necks out very far in those situations due to all the solid history and limited supply. On the other hand, what this auction has demonstrated is that buying into buildings with significant unsold inventory poses a major risk of a pricing collapse if the developer/lender decide to pull the plug before they get sold out. By example, this risk still exists at Encore due to the fragile condition of that project's developers but, as you have noted, the price collapse risk is far greater in buildings that have half or more of their units still unsold and have not yet priced those units to todays market.

    Grant, what do you think Terrazzo's next move will be ? Don't they pretty much have to reprice the whole building to bring it in-line with the auction results ?

  • gusrock1414

    I have no idea what you were expecting then and I think the developers are happy with the results given this was a straight liquidation. They got 60% of asking price.This could have been much much worse.

  • gusrock1414

    I think all newer condos will have to cut their pricing. Probably not down to the auction levels (obviously at $230/sq ft. things moved quickly so you can adjust to a bit higher than that) but they are obviously going to have to cut to stir demand. I think Velocity and Icon are in trouble and will have to get aggressive to move property but they may wait til the spring. West End auction should be interesting as the market absorbs another 30 units or so.

  • aynrand2009

    I don't think you'll see buyers foaming at the mouth to pay $230/sq foot; the last few sales at auction were below that, and declining. I also don't think you'll find hordes of buyers descending on Terrazzo, or any other condo developments, trying to outbid each other, as they did at the auction. Economics 101 teaches that supply is dependent on demand, or should be. There's too much supply, and too little demand, for housing everywhere now. The idea that “We will build it and they will come” worked only so long as unqualified buyers could obtain financing from greedy, idiotic bankers with liar loans. This only harmed those truly qualified and desirous of housing in the Gulch. They, as well as the developers and bankers, were the ones who were burned. I could care less about the bankers and developers, who should have known better. The ones I feel for are the ones taken in by the hype. One could argue they should have known better, too, but most of them were relatively young and likely had never experienced economic hard times. They have now and are not likely to be taken in again.

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  • aynrand2009

    I had earlier posted that I didn't expect bids to exceed the reserve by much and to that extent, I was wrong. I also didn't expect the bidding to be as feverish as it was, especially at the beginning. By the end, most of those who had decided to buy a Terrazzo unit at any price had already done so. I respectfully disagree with your statement that this was a liquidation, as evidenced by the fact that at least seven units were still unsold and the “auction” stopped after only 21 of 34 units were sold. Had this been a liquidation, these units would be have been, well, liquidated. Likewise, I can't believe the developers were happy with the results; were they, they would have continued the auction to its conclusion. I agree, however, that the auction could have been much worse, and I think the next one will, at least as far as the bankers and developers are concerned. Prospective buyer patience will be rewarded, I believe.

  • GrantHammond

    .I agree that this was not a liquation auction as the President of Accelerated Marketing Partners strategically stopped the auction when prices reached the $216/ft mark two times in a row. They then went back and priced the remaining condos at the average sales price of the auction and 4 more buyers bought at that point. I also don't think you can argue that this wasn't an effort to raise capital for Canyon Johnson as well as an attempt to spark some future sales in the building.

  • aynrand2009

    I think this was a cash call by CJUF's lender to demonstrate there was, in fact, a market for these condos, albeit at markedly reduced prices. Having established that and with prices trending downward, the auction was suddenly (but legally) terminated. I agree this was an attempt to spark future Terrazzo sales, and it will probably succeed if the developer realistically prices the remaining units. There is, in fact, a market for this product; the problem is the pricing, which is based on an obselete paradigm.

  • Grant Hammond

    Clearly a re-price is coming and I think none is more interested in those new prices than Market Street. I think that the new average price in the Terrazzo is certainly going to be less than $300/ft and most likely closer to $275/ft.

    There are a lot of naysayers eating crow after this auction clearly demonstrated a viable market in Nashville for the high quality high-rise product. Prices will have to come down across the board in order to vacate the current inventory, but a more valuable prediction is what prices will be after said inventory is gone. What do you think the Terrazzo prices look like in the Summer of 2012? 2014?

  • Falcon2

    Probably more than $300 per foot. In one afternoon they took the building from 11 or 12% sold to almost 50%. If they re-price in line with the auction then they could be soldout in a matter of a quarter or two. I think pricing will bounce back more than many think once there aren't many for sale. The problem for Icon, Rythm, Velocity Icon and Encore is that they are all basically selling hundreds of the same small concrete box. The Terrazzo's only similar offering is the Adelicia and inventory is very tight there. As Aynrand notes, pricing is driven by supply and demand. I see Terrazzo as closer to this finish line than any of the others mentioned by a long shot, and with lots of momentum thanks to yesterday. That's why I expect pricing to rebound in the Terrazzo so soon.

  • aynrand2009

    I don't believe the market price for Terrazzo condos is anywhere close to the $275-$300 range. Why would a rational buyer who performed some basic research offer that much when no unit fetched it at an auction filled with rabid buyers with all the incentives offered by the government, developer, and banks? The closest was a 15th (top) floor unit (#1512) with a gorgeous view that brought $265.01/SF. On the other hand, a 14th floor 3-bedroom unit sold for less than $200/SF. Assuming auction expenses of 10 percent (I wouldn't be surprised if the total expenses exceeded 15 percent) and the average sales price of $233/SF, the seller nets $210/SF from a heavily promoted sale, which is likely below building costs. I'm curious how you get to $275-$300/SF. At some point within the next few months (well before the November 2010 election), I believe the government is going to pull the plug on the respirator keeping the economy going. Why? People are sick of using tax dollars to bail out organizations that got us into this mess. People are sick of egomaniacal politicians whose only interest is preserving the status quo, while ignoring the middle class. I predict the Democrats will lose, or nearly lose, its majority in the House and will lose its veto proof majority in the senate. Obama's a one-termer, and I voted for the guy! One can only hope his successor is more than an empty suit with a melodic message that is all things to all people. But enough of politics. To answer your question: I thing Terrazzo prices will be lower in 2012 and 2014 than now for one simple reason: higher interest rates, which, accompanied by higher bank underwriting standards, will reduce the number of potential buyers exponentially. The only way I see prices higher is if the Fed keeps rates low way too long, in which case we'll have raging inflation, in which event we may as well all move to Brazil.

  • Falcon2

    I agree that $275-$300/sf is very unrealistic in the coming months but I do think that level of pricing is achievable by 2012 or perhaps even 2011 if Terrazzo doesn't get too carried away raising prices beyond $235-$250/sf. I agree that rates probably have to go higher at some point in a year or two but that may well be offset by the lack of an oversupplied condo market by then. A more balanced market should be able to absorb a mortgage rate shift to as high as 6.5% or even 7% without much harm to pricing. And once we've soaked up the sea of inventory the lower pricing climate getting there will effectively prevent new starts which will make lending on these units much less risky for banks. This too, will offset a higher shift in core rates if one should occur.

  • Will

    As background, I'm a young “professional” looking for a place to buy. I prefer condos to homes, and I've spent the past year waiting for the market to adjust before jumping in.

    As a response to some of the comments posted so far, I think something important is being overlooked – yesterday's auction did a little better than a lot of people expected, but it also siphoned ~25 prospective condo buyers from the current (and fairly small) pool of potential buyers. Every subsequent auction is going to suffer from a smaller and smaller pool. This is something the West End is going to be fighting.

    I think Grant has offered some important insights comparing the two complexes: 1) the Terrazzo and West End are very different units that appeal to very different demographics; and 2) the Terrazzoo auction did well and did prove that there are buyers for a price.

    But, I think we need to remember that a lot of shoppers are like me right now – less concerned with the actual unit and more concerned with getting a good deal that may be resellable in three to five years. After the Terrazzo auction petered out, it made me think that it reached the saturation point of supply/demand at approximately 25. I think most people would agree that had the auction involved 50 units, it would have still only sold 25 at a price above the reserve.

    So, what happens at the West End? My guess: Nashville just moved far along on the demand curve to reach a point where the supply and demand curves interesect at a much lower price. The West End auction will go one of two ways: 1) higher reserves (60% of “list”) and we'll see a single digit number of units sell; 2) lower reserves (50% of “list”) and we'll see about 20 of the units go for very close to the reserve.

    The pool of buyers not only shrunk yesterday, but it also showed that it shrunk to a point where reserves of 50% of list would likely not yield a sale (and the auction had to be stopped to avoid selling units right at the reserve). This leaves me less confident about the future of the market here. I'm starting to think that holding out for deals closer to $125 per sq. ft. on high-end, large units and $180 per sq. ft. on high-end, smaller units.

    People keep saying that they think that the Terrazzo will have to adjust its prices to reflect a price something just above the auction results. I think that's wrong. That assumes the market is rebounding. The pool of buyers just got smaller and the condo market is not turning around. Prices will have to be lower than what just happened to drive sales. Regardless of what the professionals think, this is what buyers think.

    Also, we need to stop paying attention to “list” prices. The neat thing about condos is that they are a commodity. And, just like a commodity, they are only worth a dollar more than the amount the second highest bidder is willing to pay. The Terrazzo auction did not represent a discount, it represented the actual value. These “list” prices are a joke. I assume that the “list” price reflects something close to what it cost to build plus a planned margin of profit. But, we're now seeing that the actual value of the commodity today is less than the price of production (real estate developers, say hello to the situation numerous American producers find themselves in).

    The choice developers have now is, can I afford to make debt payments and hold the commodity in hopes its inherent value rises, or take the hit, sell now, and move on (and I'm sure that some banks will help along in that decision).

    Will (sorry this was so long, I've been thinking about it too long)

  • Falcon2

    Excellent post, Will. I think your spot on with your analysis but I would offer a few comments of modest rebuttal to some of your points. First, I think that each building functions as an ecosystem within an ecosystem. The more stable and vetted each property seems to be the more buyers will be willing to pay provided that the value (location/finish/amenity) seems proportionate to the price. So, even though I think you're correct that the pool of users is limited I would argue that, assuming Terrazzo holds prices to yesterdays levels, they'll attract more than their fair share as a result of all the publicity and awareness the auction is creating. In other words, buyers should have much less to fear buying a Terrazzo unit at $230/sf than shelling out $325 at Velocity, $300 at Icon, $300 at Rhythm or even $275 at Encore. Many think all of those projects are at significant risk of the kind of re-pricing we're seeing now at Terrazzo so even incremental price cuts at these buildings probably won't yield much. So, I am very much in agreement with you that the developments that cut big quickly are most likely to absorb the limited pool of willing buyers. As we saw yesterday, investor buyers now seem very unwilling to pay much for the leftovers. That lesson will be a painful one for the developers too stubborn to be decisive.

  • Will

    I will defer to your knowledge on this one. But, I do get the nagging feeling that your logic is much more applicable in a decent economy, and in a situation that does not have a huge over-supply of condos.

    You are right that the more occupied a condo complex is, the more attractive (and valuable) it becomes (again, supply and demand at work). And, the more attractive/valuable it is, the more likely people are to buy into it rather than another, less occupied building. In this horrible economy, however, and with the glut of condos on the market, I really don't think there are a lot of people looking to/willing to buy right now. In addition, the over-supply will yield to an abundance of choices that are cheaper. That over-supply, combined with this horrible economy, will probably yield buyers that are first and foremost, price conscious.

    In other words, why buy in the Terrozzo at $230 per sq. ft. if I can get into [FILL IN THE BLANK] at $200 per sq. ft.? Sure the Terrozzo is now half full (or about that), but half full isn't exactly almost there.

    This makes the analysis center on two variables that interact inversely: price and occupancy. The questions we need to ask is how exactly those interact. For instance, for an 80% occupied building, I may be willing to pay an extra $30 per sq. ft. For a %50 occupied building, that number probably goes down to closer to $10. These are only rough examples that need some closer analysis, but I bet that the logic holds.

    I get that the builders of the Terrazzo think it is well built and worth more money; so do the people at the West End, the ICON, etc. One may boast higher ceilings, another has a pool, and yet another has a stone lobby. But, in this economy, those things are secondary. What sales-people/developers need to realize is that in this economy, price plays a much bigger role than usual. Some occupancy numbers can help move the needle (much moreso than granite, backsplash, or a pool), but that number needs to be substanially higher than %50 to move that needle.

    As to what this does to the rest, I think your logic holds if the others don't reprice (and do it now). If the Terrazzo reprices based on the auction and the ICON, Velocity, West End, etc. do not, than the others will die off. Not necessarily because the Terrazzo is nicer or more occupied, but because it is cheaper.

    All of this is obviously only my opinion, and I could be wrong. But, it does seem to make sense to me. And count me as one buyer who is not getting in at the current prices (even the Terrazzo corrected prices). I think it needs to and will go lower, and that will probably happen in the next month. Of course, I could be wrong and still renting in a year.


  • Falcon2

    I think we're mostly in agreement. I agree that price is more important now than ever but I still think there are differences about the projects that we've mentioned that make some more commodity like than others. Terrazzo and Adelicia seem to be the only projects catering to an older more mature demographic seeking a contemporary style of living. The West End and Belle Meade Court also offer large units but I think they're geared for much more traditional tastes. For buyers favoring this or willing to forego a contemporary lifestyle and the more lively locations will probably be rewarded since it appears that niche was the most severely overbuilt.

    Similarly, projects like Icon, Velocity, Rhythm and Encore were all designed for a much younger buyer that also turned out to be in short supply…at $325 plus per foot anyway. In my opinion, these projects (though less so for Encore), The West End and Belle Meade Court all warrant the steepest discounts due to their relatively low occupancies, poor momentum, and risk of big cuts ahead.

  • Will

    I agree with you. It's all over-built.

    I guess we'll know the results soon enough.


  • Devils Advocate

    – albeit, a concrete box with a better view and no freeway next to it. Terrazzo suffers on both counts in spite of its more appealing interior design.

  • Grant Hammond

    I agree with you Will that if we were in a true capital market, the supply and demand lines would have crossed and prices would have to drop below $233/ft for any condo in the market to move. But we are currently living in the land of 'funny money' capitalism that incents buyers to buy as well as incents some sellers to hold. I am not sure of how to calculate the effect of this 'funny money' in terms of price paid for future condos, but I do believe that it skews the line a slight by north.

    We also have historically cheap money available to buyers that allow some to believe that it’s okay to pay a little more because their monthly payment is going to still be below “x”. This is certainly truer in the younger first-time buyer demographic who is not always solely motivated by price, but by keeping their monthly housing expenses below “x”. This is going to be a factor that will help the entry level condo sellers like Icon, Velocity and Encore.

    All in all, it sounds like we are all in agreement that the net result of the Terrazzo auction is a lower sticker price for all unsold developer condos and that the West End needs to really ratchet up their efforts and adjust their expectations if they plan on selling anything on December 5th.

  • Devils Advocate

    Whoa – someone who voted for Obama uses a screen name invoking Ayn Rand-?? Seems counterintuitive, especially considering his aforementioned interventionist economic policies.

    That said, don't count him out till you see the pine box go in the hole. People of all political persuasions say they hate bailouts till one comes their way. Just wait – we still haven't seen Stimulus III (It will be Stimulus IV, actually, if you count the first stimulus when Bush sent everybody $300 dollar checks in early 2008).

  • aynrand2009

    Sorry, I couldn't vote for McCain, who I didn't think had a clue about how to get us out of this economic mess. Unfortunately, it appears neither does Obama. Throwing good money after bad won't solve the problem, it only exacerbates it.

  • Brad

    I am a young professional in the market for condos like Will. I have been holding back due to the pricing. I don't see Terrazzo auction as a liquidation sale or a distressed sale in any way. The seller set the terms before the deal. The seller could stop the auction at any time. And they did, presumably because prices were getting too low. I am currently an attorney but used to work in commerical appraisal. I wouldn't adjust the sales in the auction in any way as a “distressed sale.” In my opinion, the only reason you should look at higher price for these units in the near term is because there is somewhat less risk in the building in that it less vacant.

    Some have previously referred to different buildings having their own “ecomonies.” I agree to the extent that certain buildings target different buyers and have different risk. I would pay more to live in the Adelicia than I would for the Terrazzo more several reasons. A significant one being that the Adelicia is full.

    Near term, I don't think Terrazzo is worth much more than auction prices. As the building gets more established and takes on more owner – occupants as opposed to investors, I would think the prices would rise.

    The West End auction seems to be a mess. I haven't seen much marketing, and more importantly for a potential buyer, any guidance as to the auction terms. I don't take this auction seriously at this point. My understanding is that they won't divulge the min bids until the day of the auction. I wouln't waste my time going if this is the case. They seem to simply be fishing for bids and / or trying to distract potential buyers in the Terrazzo auction.

    In any event, I'm not sure there is much of a market for these places (Icon, Velocity, Terrazzo) anyway. If other young professionals are like me, they want a nice place to enterain people, but don't expect to live in the place very long, and are smart enough to expect a good deal. I don't care about concierge service, a pool, or a game room. I want a nice place to show my friends, minimal risk, min association fees, and a deal that makes sense. I don't want to have to spend hours or pay an attorney in order to decide whether or not the association will soon be in shambles or whether the developer is playing games with the bylaws. I want to be able to sell the place if I change jobs or get married.

    At first, I really liked the idea of the Gulch. However, after looking into it, I don't really get the appeal. I love the idea of a walkable neighborhood and living close to work. I don't like the idea of absurd association fees and living in front of a train track and beside a busy highway. I want a nice place to entertain friends, but I don't want my friends to have to pay for valet parking when they visit.

  • Shaun

    Given your desires, it doesn't sound like the Gulch is the place for you anyways. There are places that you would like: larger square footage to entertain, not as many amenities, ample parking, quiet neighborhood…except it's not remotely close to downtown Nashville…it's in Brentwood or one of the many other “stale” suburbs. You just have to weigh what takes priority.

    For me, I wanted to be close to work and in a walkable neighborhood that had an electricity to it. I enjoy living in the city where I feel I'm actually part of the action. I gladly gave up the square footage to enjoy this. The train isn't even really that bad at the Icon; at least I don't think so. Also, being a young professional and a red-blooded male, I'm looking forward to the pool at the Icon in the summer. After living here for a couple weeks, the scenery is spectacular!

  • jbcreason

    I am of the opinion that in times like these folks can fall into an over analytical trap. I guess it all depends on what is motivating us to either buy or sell? If you are a buyer looking for a place to live, your analysis may be a little bit different than if you are an investor. If you are a developer looking to sell, your analysis may be different if your trying to pay down debt as opposed to making a profit.

    So many factors to consider when buying that honestly none of us have control over.

    Will, I was in your place 20 years ago. What I do realize now that I didn't know then is that many things will eb and flow over time. At the end of the day, speaking in a general sense, the value of my condo that I bought in Hillsboro Village 20 years ago first as a primary residence that then turned into rental property served 1) as an enjoyable place to live, 2) positively cash flowed since I have rented it and 3) is worth more today than when I bought it.

    It seems to me that you are probabaly pretty safe to move forward with pulling the trigger and marking this off your list of things to mull over. In 10 years, regardless of which unit you buy and for what purpose, what you do buy will be worth more than what you bought it for and waiting around trying to figure out the absolute bottom may cost you alot more in interest (assuming you will be financing your purchase) than had you gone on and made a decision to buy.

  • Jim

    I am of the opinion that in times like these folks can fall into an over analytical trap. I guess it all depends on what is motivating us to either buy or sell? If you are a buyer looking for a place to live, your analysis may be a little bit different than if you are an investor. If you are a developer looking to sell, your analysis may be different if your trying to pay down debt as opposed to making a profit.

    So many factors to consider when buying that honestly none of us have control over.

    Will, I was in your place 20 years ago. What I do realize now that I didn't know then is that many things will eb and flow over time. At the end of the day, speaking in a general sense, the value of my condo that I bought in Hillsboro Village 20 years ago first as a primary residence that then turned into rental property served 1) as an enjoyable place to live, 2) positively cash flowed since I have rented it and 3) is worth more today than when I bought it.

    It seems to me that you are probabaly pretty safe to move forward with pulling the trigger and marking this off your list of things to mull over. In 10 years, regardless of which unit you buy and for what purpose, what you do buy will be worth more than what you bought it for and waiting around trying to figure out the absolute bottom may cost you alot more in interest (assuming you will be financing your purchase) than had you gone on and made a decision to buy.

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