The Middle Tennessee MLS (Realtracs) just released June 2009 stats. The following graph and analysis are based upon the residential single family homes and condos market. As you may recall in May, closings were up over 80% from January. Did June continue at this break neck pace?
Total Inventory (Good, Getting Better)
Inventory levels dropped slightly in June, down 0.14 percent from May and 10.7 percent since January. There were a total of 17,603 active homes and condos in Nashville last month, compared to May 2008 when there were 18,421 on the market, an encouraging year over year drop of 4.45 percent.
Pending Sales (Mixed)
Pending sales in Nashville are up rather significantly in 2009. Since January pending sales have soared 67 percent which is also 10.7 percent higher than May. However, compared to the same period in 2008, total pending sales are down a sharp 20.23 percent when 2,684 properties were pending.
Closed Sales (Mixed)
There is a very similar story to tell for Nashville’s closed sales as well. Since January closings have skyrocketed an astonishing 116.9 percent, a full 16.3 percent higher than May’s closings. However, compared to the same period in 2008, closings are down a rather sobering 23.75 percent when 2,480 properties closed. That being said, we have narrowed the gap over 2008 by 5.1 percent over the past 3 months and that is better than 90 percent of all US cities at the moment.
Median Prices (Mixed)
Median prices remained extremely stable for the first 5 month of 2009, up 1.9 percent, but in June this is a measurable uptick. Since May the median price increased 4.0 percent to $174,801. Also, that median price is only down 5.25 percent since June 2008 when the median price was $183,984. The price gap actually narrowed by 4.7 percent in the last 30 days.
Months of Inventory (Better)
Based on June’s closed sales, it would take 8.78 months to clear it out our excess inventory, but based on pending sales (contract accepted but not closed yet) it would only take 8.22 months. Our absorption rate is significantly better than just a month ago when we had 10.2 months of inventory based upon the same calculations.
It should be mentioned that January 2009 was one the worst months for closings in Nashville. In fact, it was the first time there were less than 1,000 total real estate closings since 1994. That understood, our market has truly picked up since January and again since May. Based upon the fact that the median price rose significantly this month and closed sales are up drastically, one must conclude that the Nashville real estate market might be regaining some health as well as some higher priced buyers. I also see indications that July might show stronger numbers than expected.